Monday, October 24, 2011

Libya vs. Syria and the Arab Spring

Moammar Gadhafi, deposed and destroyed former dictator of Libya, had a reputation.

From wearing carpet-like robes to dismissing the protests that culminated into civil war that deposed and ultimately killed him, Gadhafi had little real power once the requisite number of people rose up against him.

The merchant class did not support him. There were no military brass connected to the leadership of the country to stand by him, as Gadhafi had a deep-seated distrust of military beyond his inner circle.

Everyone in Libya had grown to hate Moammar Gadhafi, and his strongest supporters were in weakened, top-down impoverished states in Sub-Saharan Africa.

For forty-two years, Gadhafi ruled with little opposition or unrest. The sudden uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, which instigated rebellion in his own country, most likely shook a dictator long rendered complacent from decades of uninterrupted rule. He had no idea what hit the ground in February, and the rebels hounded him then found him, still dazed and confused from such a so sudden a fall after so long a reign.

None came to his aid as NATO forces pounded the nation and rebel forces advanced on Tripoli, the his hometown and final resting place, Sirt.

Libya, a backward nation of sparsely settled millions, was not under the totalitarian watchful eye many would expect from a limited megalomaniac.

Gadhafi had set the stage for his demise long before the outset of the Arab Spring, and there was little in place to stop it from swamping him and sweeping him from power.

Bashar al-Assad also has a reputation.

Like Gadhafi, Assad and family have been in power for many decades. Unlike Gadhafi, Assad has nurtured stronger ties with other nations, particularly Iran, after scorning overtures from the United States.

Syria occupied Lebanon for fifteen years, flexing military muscle and hastling neighbor states like Israel.

Assad has a more open relationship with a strong military, armed loyalists who have mowed down thousands throughout Syria.

From his father, who wiped out thousands who had risen against him in Homs, to the merchant class who depend on stability to maintain some semblance of commerce, there is a stronger loyal opposition to the Assad regime.

Unlike Gadhafi, the Syrian government and armed forces were prepared for massive insurrection, due in part to the extensive uprising of 1982, which Papa Assad put an end to with finality.

Press repression is high; Big Brother Assad watches over everything. The rebel forces are uncoordinated and powerless, compared to the armed opposition that swept Libya for the past six months.

The revolt against Assad will take much longer, yet the Syrian people are emboldened. They want to take down their strongman. His fall will have wide-spread implications for the region, hobbling the heinous infiltration of Iran.

Instead of scattering bombs here and there in Libya, the United States needed to concentrated on weakening the Syrian tyranny.

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